Thanks for all this info; I find it all INCREDIBLY interesting, and really appreciate your thoughts, input, and facts. One thing that seems clear to me, is that "it's not clear", and a LOT of special interests seem to be gunning for their piece of the pie right now. So far, here is where I have got to on this issue:
- We have a big problem with global climate change, which humans are affecting through the use of fossil fuels.
- Globally, the world may have reached 'peak oil' some time this decade.
- There is no single, simple alternative that will replace Oil as an energy source AS WE USE IT TODAY.
Oil has been phenomenally inexpensive, portable, and versatile system for the storage of energy; Nothing comes close. The alternatives that get bandied about about all have significant downsides:
1) Ethanol- Basically an energy conversion process that transforms biomass into joules. Okay, but the conversion process is not efficient at anywhere near the scale our society needs it to be to keep our cars in motion. It doesn't FEEL right to me (how can biomass fix enough energy through sunlight to replace the energy that has been compressed and stored in our earth over a billion years?? How can humans maximize the energy conversion rate to economically extract that energy?), and smacks too much like special interests lining up for their cut... Who could be against Ethanol? Hell, it helps Midwest Farmers, for God's sake! It's locally grown! Hard to fight THAT lobby...
2) Hydrogen- What a fuel! When you burn it, all you get is water and oxygen... An environmentalist's wet dream! Okay, so we know hydrogen is volatile stuff so it has a lot of energy. But, a gallon of hydrogen is unstable and STILL doesn't pack the joules of a gallon of gas. Many, many questions come up-- How do you MAKE the hydrogen (use electricity from coal-fired plants in the south)? How do you get it to the consumer? How do you make the cars safe enough to go careening all over the highways? Oh, and yeah, where's the technology (ie, engines, etc) that will actually let us run our cars on this stuff? MAYBE hydrogen is the answer, but it feels like the solution to all these problems is a long way away (like a century, NOT a decade).
3) Electrical- One word: Batteries. How the hell do we engineer our way out that problem? This, to me is the holy grail of electrical engineers. The person who develops a light, safe, storage system that will pack enough energy to run a car for 24 hours will be the next bill gates. If any of you have suggestions for which company to buy stock in, I am ALL EARS. So far, I don't see this getting solved. And I haven't even (nuke) talked about (nuke) how you make (nuke) all the electricity our world would require to replace fossil fuels....
... I think there are some other fringe players: Solar & wind are just ways to make electricity. Hydro is my favorite... But, all these methods have their technical challenges. For example, there's probably enough wind energy in the Dakotas that we could tap to power the whole US... But, who the HELL is going to install and maintain THOSE power lines? Oh, and did you know that HALF the electrical energy would probably be dissipated out into the air over the distances they would have to travel?
Okay, this is where I get stuck. How to do it? How do we replace the cheap, compact source of energy that the globe has had the opportunity to tap over the last century?
I know there are a lot of conspiracy theories out there: The oil cartels have rigged the auto industry to overlook alternatives. Scientists have developed a perpetual motion machines that will provide an unlimited energy source, but our government is keeping it a secret. Industry does not want to solve this problem in order to preserve the status quo. It's all BS.
The bottom line is this: Over the last century, we have been able to tap into a source of STORED ENERGY (oil, gas, coal) that was created through natural process over BILLIONS of years. All our energy, ultimately, comes from the sun: Plants grow, process that energy, and die. The energy is slowly concentrated within the planet over that long period. We, as humans, have the hubris to think we can quickly find an alternative energy source that will quickly and efficiently replace that amazing energy source with NO SIDE EFFECTS.
Industry is not trying to sabotage our efforts. Govornments across the globe (especially US, China, India, Europe) are not trying to sabotage our efforts. There is simply no easy solution.
here are some ideas I have:
- eliminate all energy subsidies and let the MARKETS solve the problem.
- live with less.
- live local.
- be ready to fight over the last available scraps.
... But I'll wait until the Sh*T really hits the fan before taking radical steps. It's going to be an interesting decade. Reading this makes me feel pessimistic, but it might not be all that bad. The air will get cleaner. There will probably be a little less suburban sprawl. Local farms may re-appear, and our downtowns might just come back to life.
Okay, this ended up being a lot longer than I thought it would. It's been on my mind a LOT. I hope I haven't offended any of you - Not my intent- and I'd love to hear some alternative viewpoits!
- Shawn
No comments:
Post a Comment