They FIX things

I have two pairs of leather shoes, both of which are the most comfortable shoes I have ever owned. The first pair, my brown dress shoes, I have owned for nine years; They have worn well, and feel like slippers on my feet. The second pair are more of an everyday casual/work shoe that I have owned for about four years. They were both expensive when I bought them (close to $200 each), but considering I typically run through other shoes within a year, they have both been worth the money.

The black pair started giving me trouble this winter- the left shoe really looked rough and salt-stained, and my foot kept getting wet. I was concerned that the shoe had finally given out, as a wet shoe in New England's winter is so picnic. However, the other day on Littleton's main street I noticed a sign for "Roy's Shoe Repair", and thought I would see if they could do anything about the problem.

Roy's is located on the lower alley side of the block that holds the Village Book Store (a wonderful place), with an old metal sign hanging over the door. The out of way location and inobtrusive facade make it the sort of place you could pass by a hundred times without noticing, and it almost felt like an invasion of privacy to open the door-- But, the experience of walking through that door is akin to finding a magical portal to another place and time.

The shop is cramped and untidy; Belts, ropes, and odds and ends hang from the walls or protrude from shelves erected in another era. The air is filled with the aroma of saddle soap, shoe oil and wax, and the machinery in the back room belong to the industrial age. A sign on the wall reads, "We fix Anything".

Roy Mercai looked over my shoes while his wife, Marilyn worked at an ancient sewing machine behind the counter. They appeared to me to me in thier early 70's, and his worn but deft hands quickly identified the problem with my shoes-- A slit through the sole that had allowed salty water into the the leather from the untreated side. He would have the shoes ready in 2 days' time.

The visit to Roy's Shoe Repair was somehow thrilling-- It is truly a throwback to another time, when main street was the hub of commerce, when relationships were as important as transactions, and when we fixed things, instead of just throwing them out. Two days later, when I returned to pick up my shoes, they were fixed, oiled and ready to go for the grand sum of $5. As I left the shop, I realized that I felt better than if I had just gone out to purchase a new pair of shoes. I felt connected to my community, connected to the past, and hopeful that if places like Roy's still exist then the future does not look all bad.

Fighting over the scraps

Chris made a really good comment to my last post, that subsidies, if used well, could help solve the energy problems. One example he gave was that they could be used to shift biomass production away from corn to other more efficient sources of green. He wrapped up his email by referencing a line from my previous post:


"be ready to fight over the last available scraps" I am not going to touch this one.
- Chris.

I responded with the following:


Hey, another Upside:
There are 260 million trucks and cars in the US. If we repurpose our cropland (all of it and more) to grow biomass to run all those vehicles, it will have a dramatic impact on the amount of corn available for food production.

Less Doritos = Goodbye obesity epidemic!

Okay, I'll turn the sarcasm off....

... As for subsidies, the concern I have about them is that they tend to skew the markets; I can't think of a single example of where this has not happened. Ethanol subsidies started life in the 70's as a way to develop alternative fuels and wean the US off imported oil. Thirty years later, that hasn't happened and now the Ethanol lobby is an entrenched group looking to preserve their supports and expand the legalized graft.

To take that a step further, nobody TODAY can say with any level of certainty what the solution 20 years from now will be. So, by subsidizing one industry, science, or solution over another, we may be picking a lame horse (as was done with Ethanol 30 years ago). I may be a bit unrealistic in what I see as the ideal situation, as to make it work we'd have to see the subsidies eliminated across the board (those that go to oil and coal producers, as well as new energy solutions). By doing this, and enabling the market to set prices for energy at their real cost, the most efficient solutions would more easily become evident. This may seem counter to out intuition, especially after the $10/barrl of oil days of the 90s, but as the price of energy becomes more volatile the markets will begin to work their magic.

Eliminating the subsidies altogether does NOT mean we stop using government funds to address the problem. Basic research will be necessary, and would have to be supported at universities and research centers. Environmental regulations that effectively address the challenges of our warming planet will need to be developed and enforced. I hope some money can be spent on a modern, efficient mass transit system (Train Grand Vitesse).

AS for my fighting over the scraps comment... (Will I be able to keep this short??) I know this is a really, really sensitive topic, but one that really hasn't been honestly faced in public discourse. Everyone (and I mean EVERYONE) wants to more or less preserve the status quo. But, it's kind of like Jeff's comment last weekend about the Suburban landscape in VA... Everyone wants a 3,000 foot McMansion, and then they put up picket signs "Say No to the power lines". We can't have our cake, and eat it, too.

Wars are always about one of two things: Cultural superiority, and/or resources. There are six billion people on this planet. A LOT of them, including the ones living in China, Indonesia, Iran, and India have access to satellite TV. They watch CNN. They get MTV and The Home Shopping Network. They see what we have, and can compare it to what they don't.... To paraphrase UVM Political Science professor Frank Bryan (ink: http://www.uvm.edu/~fbryan/) "They're on to us, folks!" Are we willing to share with them?

Look around your town; Look at your own family & friends; Then ask yourself: How many of your neighbors, co-workers, family, or friends are willing to share on a global scale? How many are willing to live in a 1200 square foot home with only one bathroom? How many are willing to share one car per household? How many are willing to do without the weekly excursions to Wal-Mart? I've thought about this, and the answer I always get is: "Not many." Not even among my most globally- and environmentally aware friends. And the truth is, to share resources equitably on a global scale would require MUCH more dramatic steps than the 3 I mentioned above... Now, what is the alternative?

The oil and resource wars have already started. Take a look at the genocidal conflicts that are raging across sub-Saharan Africa. There are a LOT of people fighting over "not enough"... Not enough water. Not enough arable land. Not enough food or medicine. Eventually, the fighting will die down, but not until there are a lot less people. These conflicts are exacerbated by the dramatic rise in oil prices; They have effectively been priced out of the oil market, and the local economies are forced to contract to match that new reality. I may have no idea what I am talking about, but I think we are seeing in a microcosm what kind of convulsions a post-oil economy MAY experience.

Everything about our culture and society today revolves around an oil-based economy. If that oil spigot is turned off too quickly, what happens to our economy? What happens to the economy when the price of a barrel spikes to $200? What about $300? How will you make nitrogen-based fertilizer in enough quantity to grow all that biomass when the Canadian gas fields don't generate enough to heat New York City? What happens if it all happens really, really fast?
To exacerbate the challenge, it won't just happen here. At the same time, China will see energy costs spike. India will too. And THEN, you will see a mad dash for all those scraps... Just to buy our economies, our societies, our CULTURES a little more time.

If we HAVE reached peak oil, (and we'll only know for sure in hindsight), then we have about 30- 40 years left to solve this challenge before things get really interesting.
I hope we have more time. I hope we can develop and deploy alternative energy solutions before the global crisis gets really nasty.

SPT

The challenges of replacing oil

Guys--
Thanks for all this info; I find it all INCREDIBLY interesting, and really appreciate your thoughts, input, and facts. One thing that seems clear to me, is that "it's not clear", and a LOT of special interests seem to be gunning for their piece of the pie right now. So far, here is where I have got to on this issue:

1. We have a big problem with global climate change, which humans are affecting through the use of fossil fuels.
2. Globally, the world may have reached 'peak oil' some time this decade.
3. There is no single, simple alternative that will replace Oil as an energy source AS WE USE IT TODAY.

Oil has been phenomenally inexpensive, portable, and versatile system for the storage of energy; Nothing comes close. The alternatives that get bandied about about all have significant downsides:

1) Ethanol- Basically an energy conversion process that transforms biomass into joules. Okay, but the conversion process is not efficient at anywhere near the scale our society needs it to be to keep our cars in motion. It doesn't FEEL right to me (how can biomass fix enough energy through sunlight to replace the energy that has been compressed and stored in our earth over a billion years?? How can humans maximize the energy conversion rate to economically extract that energy?), and smacks too much like special interests lining up for their cut... Who could be against Ethanol? Hell, it helps Midwest Farmers, for God's sake! It's locally grown! Hard to fight THAT lobby...

2) Hydrogen- What a fuel! When you burn it, all you get is water and oxygen... An environmentalist's wet dream! Okay, so we know hydrogen is volatile stuff so it has a lot of energy. But, a gallon of hydrogen is unstable and STILL doesn't pack the joules of a gallon of gas. Many, many questions come up-- How do you MAKE the hydrogen (use electricity from coal-fired plants in the south)? How do you get it to the consumer? How do you make the cars safe enough to go careening all over the highways? Oh, and yeah, where's the technology (ie, engines, etc) that will actually let us run our cars on this stuff? MAYBE hydrogen is the answer, but it feels like the solution to all these problems is a long way away (like a century, NOT a decade).

3) Electrical- One word: Batteries. How the hell do we engineer our way out that problem? This, to me is the holy grail of electrical engineers. The person who develops a light, safe, storage system that will pack enough energy to run a car for 24 hours will be the next bill gates. If any of you have suggestions for which company to buy stock in, I am ALL EARS. So far, I don't see this getting solved. And I haven't even (nuke) talked about (nuke) how you make (nuke) all the electricity our world would require to replace fossil fuels....

... I think there are some other fringe players: Solar & wind are just ways to make electricity. Hydro is my favorite... But, all these methods have their technical challenges. For example, there's probably enough wind energy in the Dakotas that we could tap to power the whole US... But, who the HELL is going to install and maintain THOSE power lines? Oh, and did you know that HALF the electrical energy would probably be dissipated out into the air over the distances they would have to travel?

Okay, this is where I get stuck. How to do it? How do we replace the cheap, compact source of energy that the globe has had the opportunity to tap over the last century?
I know there are a lot of conspiracy theories out there: The oil cartels have rigged the auto industry to overlook alternatives. Scientists have developed a perpetual motion machines that will provide an unlimited energy source, but our government is keeping it a secret. Industry does not want to solve this problem in order to preserve the status quo. It's all BS.

The bottom line is this: Over the last century, we have been able to tap into a source of STORED ENERGY (oil, gas, coal) that was created through natural process over BILLIONS of years. All our energy, ultimately, comes from the sun: Plants grow, process that energy, and die. The energy is slowly concentrated within the planet over that long period. We, as humans, have the hubris to think we can quickly find an alternative energy source that will quickly and efficiently replace that amazing energy source with NO SIDE EFFECTS.
Industry is not trying to sabotage our efforts. Govornments across the globe (especially US, China, India, Europe) are not trying to sabotage our efforts. There is simply no easy solution.
here are some ideas I have:

- eliminate all energy subsidies and let the MARKETS solve the problem.
- live with less.
- live local.
- be ready to fight over the last available scraps.

... But I'll wait until the Sh*T really hits the fan before taking radical steps. It's going to be an interesting decade. Reading this makes me feel pessimistic, but it might not be all that bad. The air will get cleaner. There will probably be a little less suburban sprawl. Local farms may re-appear, and our downtowns might just come back to life.

Okay, this ended up being a lot longer than I thought it would. It's been on my mind a LOT. I hope I haven't offended any of you - Not my intent- and I'd love to hear some alternative viewpoits!

- Shawn

Purpose & Goals of this blog

I have thought about starting this blog for a while now, as a way to cogitate, gel and record my thoughts on the world we live in. For some, it might be an interesting read, and for me, it will be interesting to see my thoughts on paper (or a computer screen), and to explore how these thoughts change over time. Will my perspective and convictions change as time progresses. Will my theories be validated, or dissembled? For now, my goals are as follows:

- To record my thoughts on the world around me.
- To use it as platform to share, discuss, and explore these ideas with others.
- to track my thinking, so as to see how it changes over time.

Today, I have had a great exchange with my friends Chris, Ray, and Dale about alternative energy solutions, and America's adiction to oil. That exchange has compelled me to document some of my thoughts here.